Why Trump Achieved a Major Step in the Middle East But Faces Challenges With Putin Over Ukraine
Accounts of an upcoming US-Russia leadership meeting have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he planned to meet Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial meeting by the both countries' top diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump informed reporters at the White House on a recent weekday. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I'll see what transpires."
- Donald Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after plan for Putin talks postponed
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky departs Washington without results
The frequently changing summit is another twist in Trump's attempts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the US president after he arranged a truce and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in Egypt last week to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, the president turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get Russia done," he said.
However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for nearing several years.
Less Leverage
According to Witkoff, the key to achieving a deal was Israel's decision to strike Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave the president leverage to compel Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president benefited from a history of siding with Israel since his first term, including his decision to move the American embassy to the contested city, to alter America's position on the legality of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israeli defense operations against Iran.
The US president, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that provided him with special sway over the Israeli leader.
Combine Trump's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to secure an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, the president has much less influence. Over the past nine months, he has swung between efforts to pressure Putin and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has warned to enact additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that such actions could harm the global economy and intensify the conflict.
At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing weapon deliveries to the country - then to back off in the face of worried European partners who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the entire region.
Trump loves to tout his skill to meet and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the war any closer to a peaceful end.
Putin may actually be using Trump's desire for a deal – and belief in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.
During the summer, Russia's leader agreed to a summit in Alaska just as it seemed probable that Trump would approve on legislative penalties backed by Senate Republicans. That legislation was subsequently put on hold.
Recently, as news emerged that the White House was considering seriously shipping long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader called the US president who then promoted the potential summit in Hungary.
The next day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but departed without agreements after a reportedly tense meeting.
Trump insisted that he was not being manipulated by Putin.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by the best of them, and I emerged successfully," he said.
However the president of Ukraine subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the matter of long-range mobility became a little further away for us – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he stated.
Thus, in a matter of days, Trump has bounced from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to Ukraine to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and privately urging Zelensky to cede all of Donbas – even land Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately settled on advocating a truce along present frontlines – something the Russian government has rejected.
On the campaign trail previously, the candidate vowed that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since abandoned that pledge, admitting that concluding the hostilities is turning out more difficult than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the challenge of finding a framework for peace when both parties wants, or can afford to, cease hostilities.