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Two days to go.

The English side's first Test in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we explore where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to make runs, right?

Batters on each side of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are bothering to show up.

A lot of the build-up has focused on the perceived difficulty of batting successfully, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, particularly against fast bowling, no country has been harder in which to score runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing bowling in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the difference, and vice-versa.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and durability of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average below 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home Test without both key bowlers, and lost, was in 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have won by a total of 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in Adelaide previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected – The tourists should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England could not find an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners faster than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a factor in Zak Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

Crawley, who famously struck the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for four, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australia.

His average increases when the pace increases.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 matches.

Uncapped Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, most likely returning to number three.

Across seven matches in the current year, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was brought in, meaning the spinner has less space to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the identical, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test stages an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the visitors approach with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the venue for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Every Test at the new venue has been claimed by the team batting first.

The English often overthink day-night matches, when data indicate the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

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